Big Brother 22's premiere date is FINALLY upon us, so I thought it would be fun to create a way-too-early prediction for the boot order. And as I started doing that, I realized that in order to predict the boot order, I needed to first get some idea of how I think the alliances will shake out, at least in the early season. So that turned into this big, weird, conspiracy theory of a post that you're about to see here.
Obviously, we don't have the actual full cast list at this point. However, based on the current rumor mill on Twitter, I think the cast pictured below is our real cast, and my predictions will therefore be based on it. If even one person is different, that can shake up the dynamic, so hopefully this is accurate.
I went through the cast, tried to make connections based on previous relationships, and have used that to create the predictions below. Pretty much all of my predictions on placement/ alliances are based on that prediction, so if I'm woefully wrong on that, I'm probably going to totally bomb on everything! But that'll make this post even more fun to look back on at the end of the season.
General Alliance/House Structure Predictions
Every year, we see a big majority alliance form in the first week of the competition, run things for a few weeks, and eventually break up. While trying to make connections between players, I ended up compiling just that-- an 8 person alliance built on what I believe to be some of the strongest pre-game friendships that will be highly combustible. Here's how I see it shaking out.
I think that Dani, Janelle, and Nicole F. are the most well-connected people in the house, and they're also connected to each other. I could see Keesha joining up with them and the 4 of them pulling in Kaysar, Cody, Da'vonne, and Memphis. And here we see our immediate problem. Da'vonne & Nicole already played together, aligned with each other, and the alliance blew up. I think if they were proposed an alliance like this, they'd have trouble turning it down, but wouldn't trust each other and that would eventually be the end of the alliance. I'm not sure how the ensuing chaos would play out, but I'd love to see it happen.
I say all this, but also based on his previous game, I know that Tyler tends to work with athletic players-- look at Level 6. They were the pretty people/ the popular kids/ the athletes. Which is essentially what my big majority alliance looks like-- the popular athletes and their previous allies. Tyler, and possibly Christmas & Bayleigh could definitely be somewhere in the mix with that group, and if the alliances shake out differently, they could be in there instead of people like Keesha and Memphis.
I could also see an early all guys alliance forming between Cody, Memphis, Tyler, and Enzo. It'd probably be spearheaded by Enzo, who would likely be both the most expendable & the only one 100% committed to it, since everyone else has a pre-established friendship in the game.
Another potential alliance I see are the moms/parents: Dani, Janelle, D'avonne, Christmas, maybe Enzo? I think this just further solidifies my thoughts on that majority alliance, tbh.
And then there are the misfits: Kevin, Nicole A, Ian, and David. They were misfits on their original seasons & seem to be the same on this one as well. We always get some misfits going deep in the game and others getting cut because someone wants to not get blood on their hands, and I think this cast is no different. Full disclosure: I have not seen Kevin's season. I'm basing my opinion on him on what I know/have heard about him from BB discourse! There are very few seasons I haven't watched, and 11 is one of them. (Full list: 5, 7 (bc I haven't finished 5), 9, 11)
So, those are my broad alliance predictions, now on to my actual prediction for the boot order!
Note: they're divided into categories-- pre-jury, early jury, late jury, F2. The categorization is more important than where I've specifically placed them on the list, but I have tried to roughly order them too.
Boot Order Predictions
Pre-Jury
Ian
I really hate that I've had to put Ian in this spot, but it just makes the most sense. I think he's a really easy first boot. And if not him, then the person I have directly below him on here. First, he's one of the least well-connected members of the cast. He played with Janelle, but they weren't close, and I think she's actually more likely to target him than to work with him. He's also kinda been out of the BB community for a little while. And on top of that, he's a winner. And on top of that, he was nearly the first boot on his original season because of how awkward he was. Unfortunately, he's just not in a great spot going into this game.
Potential upside to get him further: I think if he manages to survive the first few evictions (potentially by forming an underdogs alliance?), lock him in for the late game. Especially since there are a lot of strong underdog/misfit players-- they just have to be able to come together and form something quickly.
David
Unfortunately, David also isn't in a great position going into this game either. Sure, he's got Nicole A from his season as a potential ally, but she's also a bit of a misfit in this cast. He also was already the first boot last season, which I think makes him a really easy target if one of the first HOHs doesn't want to make a big move and get blood on their hands. That said, we've barely seen him play, and I do think he has the potential to be a capable player-- I just don't have any proof for that.
Potential upside to get him further: If he can quickly get himself in a better spot than last time. He's really likable, personable, and perceptive. I think if he can bond with people quickly before someone tries to go for an easy first boot, he has the potential to go much further.
Enzo
As much as I think Enzo had a really great social game in BB12, I'm not sure where he finds his footing in this cast (he's one of the least connected) and could easily see him going out early. I see him as someone whose best-case scenario is getting into an all-guys alliance like the Brigade & I'm not sure how strong of a game he can play outside of that. And pretty much ALL of the other guys (especially the ones he'd try to work with) have a pre-established stronger female ally. So any loyalty to a potential all guys alliance would be weak. I could see him trying to form something with Tyler, Cody, and Memphis, but I think Enzo would be the clear odd man out of that alliance & therefore the easiest to cut.
Potential upside to get him further: If he could get in good with the old-school/parent players, I think he could find a decent footing. It just depends on if he can work with them.
Kaysar
I mean... he's never made it to jury, so why predict anything different? I'm mostly kidding, but in all seriousness, he's one of the people I'm most excited to see back. TBH, I think his biggest strength and biggest weakness are both Janelle. Janelle is really well connected in this cast, which I think will help him to a good position early on. However, she's also one of the 3 biggest targets in this cast, and I think anyone not aligned with her will be gunning for her and her allies immediately. Kaysar could easily get caught in the crosshairs, especially if Janelle saves herself by winning a comp-- which is more likely than not.
Potential upside to get him further: If Janelle makes it a few weeks and then gets cut pre-jury. That gives him enough time to get integrated into whatever alliance she brings him into, but also removes the player putting the biggest target on his back. Once she's gone, he could be seen as alone and weak, and his likability could bring him far.
Janelle
I find it hard to see Janelle making jury in this season, even though I think she's one of the most well-connected players in the cast. I see her, Daniele, and Tyler as the most obvious threats on the board. I think she has a lot of potential allies, and could be the one to create the initial majority alliance, but that just makes her target bigger to the misfits. And a misfit always wins HOH early in the season. The way I see the house aligning in the pre-jury phase, Tyler is probably floating between the misfits and the majority alliance, so a misfit would be unlikely to target him, which makes Janelle #1 on the board. Regardless of if my majority alliance vs misfits thing happens, Janelle is going to be a huge target for anyone not aligned with her. Of the 3 biggest targets, I think she's the least strategically sound, and although she's a comp beast, if they block her from playing in the veto by backdooring her, she could easily be out pre-jury.
Potential upside to get her further: If her allies are really loyal and she wins a bunch of comps. I'm not sure I see another way for her to get much further than this.
Early Jury
Daniele
Like Janelle, I see Daniele as one of the biggest targets and threats on this cast list. She's an iconic early-season player and she's known as a comp beast. Everyone loves Dani. Personally, I find her a bit overrated, because I don't think her strategic game is that great, and I place much more importance on that than on comp wins. Season 13, she abandoned her returnees alliance in favor of the much weaker newbies because she liked them more. She can definitely be too emotional of a player. Regardless, I think that Janelle will be a bigger threat than her, and I think they'll end up aligned or at least on the same side of the house, so I think Janelle will be out before her. And compare her to Tyler, the other big threat, I think he's a more capable, maneuverable player while also being good at comps. So I think he outlasts her.
Potential upside to get her further: Ditto Janelle. If her allies are really loyal and she wins a bunch of comps. I'm not sure I see another way for her to get much further than this.
Memphis
For the early jury phase, I've chosen people I think will be seen as threats within their alliances, or the strongest of a pair, etc. Memphis and Keesha will be seen as a duo, and if one's going to get targeted first... it's gonna be Memphis. That said, I see Memphis as someone with a wide range of placements. He could be out early because he's a physical threat and not well connected, he could float through jury and make it almost to the end, or he could make it to the finale again. Memphis is a really hard one to peg down. But given the position I think he'll be in, I think this is a decent prediction.
Potential variances: honestly, literally anything could happen to shift his placement in a different direction. You could visit me from the future and tell me literally any placement claiming it's the one he got on BB22, and I'd be like "yeah, that checks out."
Bayleigh
Bayleigh is like Memphis for me in the fact that I could see her placing absolutely anywhere on this list depending on how well she does in comps and how the alliances shake out. I think she showed a decent ability for the game in BB20 despite aligning with the weakest players in the house and making a few fatal blunders along the way. I think if she can position herself well and be non-threatening on the comps, she can make a pretty decent run. Otherwise, she might get cut in the first half of the season, whether due to not forming a strong enough alliance, playing too hard, or telling the opposing alliance about the secret power that she has.
Potential variances: again, ditto memphis. I kinda already laid this out in the previous paragraph.
Christmas
Christmas. Why? I was a bit confused when I saw Amber was in the mix, but... CHRISTMAS? TBH, if Amber is in instead of Christmas, I think she's 100% in that majority group with Cody/Nicole, and that might change the structure of the group. But Christmas is the one who's more heavily rumored, so she's the one I'm talking about. I think she'll be just physically threatening enough and just on the outs enough that she'll make it to somewhere around mid-jury before getting cut because of her competition abilities. Then again, we haven't really ever actually seen her competition abilities, so... who knows. Maybe she's actually awful at them. Probably not, but it's possible.
Potential variances: If she comes out of the gate swinging immediately and can't find strong allies, she might get picked off by the majority alliance pre-jury. On the flip side, if she's as much of a dud as she was on 19, she could end up making it all the way to the end as a goat.
Mid to Late Jury
Kevin
As I mentioned, I've never seen Kevin's season, so my opinions on him are based on BB discourse. I think that if/when my hypothetical majority alliance combusts, Kevin is someone Da'vonne might try to pick up. TBH, she might just do that regardless week 1. Despite that, though, I think he's someone who's already a bit of a misfit on top of the fact that he's not well connected to this cast. However, it's my understanding that that's also the position he was in for a good chunk of his own season, and he managed to survive all the way until final 3. And possibly would have been the winner had he made it to final 2. So he's used to being an underdog and being able to survive through the game as an underdog. Additionally, because of his underdog status, not many people remember him at all, let alone remember him for being a particularly strong player. So he's one of the players coming in with the absolute smallest target on his back, despite proving to be (according to podcasters whose opinions I trust) the best player on his season. It seems to me like he got a centimeter in season 11. If you give him an inch, he might be able to take the whole mile.
Potential variances: He could end up in the Ian/David spot if he gets unlucky. I think a lot of his danger will be early on when he's likely struggling to make allies and seen as an easy person to evict. However, I think a lot of the misfits on this cast are strong strategic players, so if they can form something early... that would be really great to watch.
Tyler
As a self-proclaimed Tyler stan, it hurts a bit to be putting him anywhere except the finale. And if I'm honest with myself, my gut still says he could make a fantastic run at it and end up winning, because I have that much faith in his ability to play this game. But the biggest downside to his game is the same one I see, and the players will see. He's a huge threat. He's far and away the best player on this cast. Period. He ran circles around his BB20 houseguests, and although he bungled the ending a bit, he still played a great game. But everyone knows that now. Including the houseguests. People will be gunning to get him out, and he doesn't come in with many pre-established allies. TBH, I probably should be putting him in early jury, or even pre-jury. But my gut and my opinion on his BB20 game tell me that he has the chops to survive the target on his back. I think he's got a good enough social game that he will be able to maneuver between what I believe the alliances will be. It's the game he played last time, but if you've got someone who's seemingly on your side, you're probably going to think twice about trying to cut him. And that's why his game works so well. Will he be able to last this far? I think so, but I could be wrong.
Potential variances: Another high-variance player. He could be out early due to his threat level, or he could be a strong enough player to make it all the way to the end. I'm betting more on the latter, but I wouldn't be shocked at the former either.
Nicole A
Although she's positioned to potentially be a misfit on this cast again, we've already seen that she's able to maneuver her way to the end in a position like that. She also has stronger potential allies this time around. And she's not coming in with a huge strategic target on her back. She wasn't seen as a mastermind, she wasn't seen as a comp threat-- she's known for winning America's Favorite Houseguest because she was the bright spot in an otherwise problematic season. So sure, maybe that might make her a social threat to some people, but she also didn't have a ton of long-lasting allies in the game last time either, so people probably won't consider her a social threat either. All that said, however, she did definitely have a very sneaky game in BB21 before her spot was blown up. She's proven that she does have some decent strategic chops, and if they underestimate her, she could make it all the way to the end again.
Potential variances: She could be out early because she's a misfit who's seen as too likable. On the flipside, though, she could play a really lowkey game and make it all the way to the end. I think she's personable and likable enough to get in good with people and get far.
Keesha
Keesha's kinda got the whole package here. As a more old-school player, she's been a part of the community a long time and therefore is pretty well-connected. She and Da'vonne especially seemed to get along well in the interactions they've had, which is a major reason I've mentioned them as likely being aligned this season. Furthermore, she comes in without a reputation for being a gamer. If anything, people remember Keesha's birthday more than they remember any of her actual gameplay. She's also there with Memphis, who she worked with in her own season. She's likable, so she'll probably be able to bond with the players she doesn't know. And she's also a capable player who made it near the end on her first season. And I think she'll be able to do that again. She also befriended some of the misfit players in her original season, so if she could do that again while still being well-connected? That might be a deadly combination!
Potential variances: She got in some infamous fights in BB10, and although she aligned with women early on in the season, that alliance blew up, with tons of fights in the process. If she aligns with women again this season, like I think she's positioned to, history might repeat itself, and this time she could be on the opposing end of it.
Da'vonne
I'm really surprising myself with how high I'm predicting Da'vonne will get. I'm not necessarily putting the jury members in order, but I do think she has the potential to go a lot further than she has before, which is why I've put her in this section of the list. I think that she's one of the most well-connected players in the game. She's positioned to be able to have allies immediately and form a majority. And she's a gamer. She's there to play, and she wants to win. And apparently, she's gotten really physically fit for The Challenge, which will be really helpful due to how physical recent competitions have become. The only problem is... Da'vonne. Both of her previous seasons, her mouth got her in trouble. And the highest she's gotten is the first jury member. But if there's a season where I think she's positioned to do better, I think it's this one. I think she comes in with more of a reputation as a character than as a good strategist, and I think that will be a benefit to her. Furthermore, I think the people she's going to align with early on will be much bigger targets than her, so once some of them are gone and her alliance falls apart again, if she's still there, she might be able to pick up some misfits or rally together any alliance members she still has.
Potential variances: She's in a good position within this cast, but that all depends on her ability to remain calm & level-headed and not get herself into hot water. If she can do that, she can go far.
Finale Night-- F2
Nicole F
All pre-season jokes aside, I think Nicole Franzel is in a really good spot going into this season. She's got a lot of friends on this cast, and they're from a variety of eras of the show. I mean, the two I see her most strongly aligned with are probably Dani and Cody, who on their own probably wouldn't end up working together. Despite being a winner, Nicole probably won't be seen as a threat. Sure, she won, but her game's not super respected by the community. She's that player who's better than you think she is, and will likely be underrated both by the fans and by her fellow houseguests. She's also really likable, at least to her fellow houseguests. So I see her as someone coming in with a really good chance at doing really well again.
Potential variances: She's a winner. If people in the house actually respect her game, she could definitely be targeted, and then it would come down to how well connected she truly is to the people around her.
Cody
(my winner pick!)
Before taking a good long look at this cast, I honestly kept forgetting Cody was on it. But as I compared them all to each other, he started really standing out. He's going to do well at competitions, he's got a great social game, and he's a solid strategist. He's basically the total package. And he has all of that wrapped in the nice bow of "the guy who made the worst move in Big Brother history." I think Cody's going to be massively underrated by the other houseguests. Because he's known for that one move, that massive blunder that cost him the game. But otherwise, he was actually a really solid, well-rounded BB player. If he took Victoria, he won 500K and today he'd be seen as a mid-tier winner. Period. I think the houseguests won't remember how strong of a game he played until that point, and therefore he'll be able to fly under the radar. Add to that his connection to Nicole F, who's connected to a huge portion of the cast? I think he's sitting pretty in this cast.
Potential variances: At some point, he'll probably be seen as a physical threat, which could get him into hot water. It also depends on how the alliances eventually shake out. I think women are going to be power players this season, and if he ends up on the wrong side of an all girls power alliance? Watch out, dude.
So, with a few hours left to go before Big Brother 22: All Stars 2 premieres, this is my official prediction, and I'm locking in my winner pick as Cody Calafiore. My heart is not with Cody-- if I'm honest, my heart is right where it's always been alongside our superfans Tyler, Nicole A & Ian. But based on how I see the season playing out in my weird conspiracy theory, Cody's my pick.
Thanks for reading! Let me know your own winner picks & predictions down in the comments!
