RuPaul's Drag Race Season 13 Pre-Season Predictions

Long time, no see! 

It's been a while since I've posted on this blog, let alone done a Drag Race-specific post, but here I am again, because I'm itching to talk about the 13 queens we'll be seeing on season 13. 

Admittedly, for quite a while after the announcement of the new season and cast, I paid the show absolutely ZERO mind, because I've got a bit of RPDR fatigue. I never finished the Canadian season (despite really enjoying it) and All-Stars 5, and I didn't go anywhere near that Las Vegas show they put out, or any of the recent international seasons. More and more, the show feels more rigged, overproduced, and stale. And because of that, the relentless barrage of new seasons no longer felt exciting and welcome, but rather... well... relentless lol. So, I fell off the bandwagon.

But, finally, thanks to wanting to listen to an RHAP podcast about the cast, I dove into the Meet the Queens videos, and am finally hype for the new season and cast. And, because RHAP made a list ranking how they thought the queens would do, I did pre-season predictions again. And what fun are predictions without sharing them? 

This will be formatted like my previous post predicting the placement of the Season 10 cast. I'll discuss the cast in alphabetical order & share how far I think they'll make it (going deep, middle of the pack, early boot, etc.). Additionally, because I always have to be extra, I also made a list simply ranking the queens from my favorite to least favorite, which I'll share alongside my discussion of each queen.

I should also note that I'm well aware of the fact that there are spoilers out there. Usually, I'm all over the tea checker google doc, and I'm sure I'll find my way there before the end of the season. But, for now, I've got my blinders on!

Alright, enough rambling. Let's jump into the list so that I can make some more wildly inaccurate predictions, such as "I think I'm going to hate Monique Heart" and "Aquaria's an early-middle boot."

Denali

Personal fave ranking: #12/13

The meet the queens video I watched had them in alphabetical order, so Denali was the first queen I was introduced to, and she set the bar pretty high. She seems like a really polished queen and seasoned performer. However... she bored me. A lot of these queens either have a fantastic personality or an interesting, clear point of view, and Denali... didn't give me any of that. She feels like one of those so-polished-she's-boring queens. Think Brooke Lynn Hytes. Lights up on stage, but average otherwise. Denali also said she's concerned about Snatch Game, which fits right in with that idea. And if you're concerned about Snatch Game, I'm concerned with your ability to progress in this competition. Overall, she'll probably do really well, but won't be an audience fave.

My Prediction: Going Deep

Elliott with 2 Ts

Personal fave ranking: #10/13

I'm sorry if these first few discussions blend together, but that's how I felt about the first few queens while watching them. They all seemed polished, and I think they're going to do well, but they just did nothing for me. And although Elliott was more interesting to me than Denali, it wasn't by a lot. Being a trained dancer is always a plus, and like Denali, she also labeled herself as a performer. The RHAP team seemed to think she's going to be a villain, and I can see that now that they mentioned it, but it wasn't something I came out of her interview thinking. She seems a bit uppity, and a little introverted, so we'll see if that translates into a villain edit. Either way, I think her polish and performing ability is going to last her a long time, and if she's the villain, we might see her in that classic losing-finalist-villain spot. 

My Prediction: Going Deep

Gottmik

Personal fave ranking: #11/13

Again, apologies, but these first few really ran together for me. Which is a bit odd since Gottmik is kinda on the opposite end of the spectrum from the other 2-- trying to prove they're not just a look queen, but can also perform. I'm always skeptical when a queen says "I'm not JUST a ______ queen," because often, they are truly just what they're perceived to be. Will that be the case for Mik? We'll have to wait and see. Their paint is great, and the fashion seems on point as well. In the end, they're in the middle for me, simply because I just don't know what to do with them. They seem polished, but if they can't perform? That won't go well.

My Prediction: Middle of the pack

Joey Jay 

Personal fave ranking: #3/13

When I first saw the cast, my eye immediately went to Joey, because I'm utterly predictable. Give me androgyny or give me death! And when I watched Joey's interview? LOVE. She's a bit ditzy and gives me a hint of Adore Delano vibes, which I love. HOWEVER, my hopes for her... are much lower. I feel like this is going to be my Dusty Ray Bottoms/Max/Milk. *I* love her, but she's probably an early boot, because Michelle hates when people have one signature feature, especially if it's weird. Michelle's going to bring up the lack of a wig until Joey goes home for it. I can already hear it. Add to that the fact that in the E1 preview, she didn't exactly get a favorable edit, and I'm really worried about her chances. 

My Prediction: Early boot

Kahmora hall

Personal fave ranking: #13/13

If Denali is boring, Kahmora is Nyquil. She's not a look queen, but she's also not a performance queen. She's a glamour queen. In the iconic words of Bianca Del Rio... What do you do successfully? We get basically 2 types of "seasoned," "legendary" queens on drag race-- 1- ones who make it to the end because they're multi-talented and good at everything, and 2- ones who fizzle out in a few weeks because they can't keep up with the competition. Given that I'm not sure how her drag translates into a competition like RPDR, I obviously think she'll be the latter. I'd love for her to prove me wrong, but so far I'm not impressed. While I don't think she's probably going to be the first boot, she's the queen I overall have the least faith in, and I feel fairly confident that she'll be gone by the 4th elimination, if not earlier.

My Prediction: Early boot

Kandy Muse

Personal fave ranking: #6/13

I have so many mixed thoughts on Kandy. Over the years, I feel like it's become pretty easy to peg the early boots/cannon fodder. I pegged Kalorie and Vanjie in my S10 post, and when last year's cast was released, Dahlia Sin stood out like a sore thumb. And maybe it's because they're from the same drag family, but I get that same vibe from Kandy. HOWEVER, my brain wants nothing to do with my gut reaction, and loved her in the interview & E1 preview, both as a competitor and as a person. She's funny and endearing, and although that definitely recalls Vanjie in my mind, Vanjie also made it to F5 in S11. I could see her being our endearing, rough-around-the-edges queen who makes it pretty far (ex: ChiChi, Adore, Heidi), but I can't completely ignore that immediate gut feeling that she could be cut early.

My Prediction: Middle of the pack

LaLa Ri

Personal fave ranking: #5/13

Why do I have the horrible feeling that all the people I love are going to completely tank?! I LOVED LaLa. She's so charismatic and warm, and I found myself smiling the entire time I watched her. But those red flags... GIRL. She's a baby queen, and unfortunately... you can tell. I felt like I could already hear Michelle's complaints in my head as I was watching the interview. I'm excited to see her perform, and I have a feeling I'll be seeing her lip sync sooner rather than later, unfortunately. 

My Prediction: Early boot

Olivia Lux

Personal fave ranking: #2/13

Once again, a queen I loved. When she talked about getting her name from the Latin word for light, it completely made sense to me, because she completely lit up the room. She is the definition of charisma. However, when I was first ranking their potential placement, I put her near the bottom of the list, and I think that was me trying to combat my overwhelming love for her by being objective and taking that a few steps too far. Because she does have some potential negatives. She's a baby queen, even more than LaLa, which could definitely be a strike against her. But she doesn't feel like a baby queen. She could be a Valentina, for all we know! I know I'm going to love her, and I hope she turns it out and does well, but I'm erring on the side of caution for my prediction. Also... she plays the piano!!!

My Prediction: Late Middle of the Pack

 

Rosé

Personal fave ranking: #1/13

Going into the Meet the Queens videos, I already had a couple of faves based solely on their aesthetic. Then, Rosé came in and busted through everyone, and I was pleasantly surprised, because I'd had pretty much zero impression of her before watching the video. And then, as I was listening to the RHAP podcast? The first thing they said: she is SMART. Oh. So I remain predictable. My favorite RPDR queens ever are Bob & Sasha, two incredibly intelligent NYC queens. Which is what Rosé is. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Brita was my pre-season fave last year. I have a type. She's also the ONE queen where my love of her matches how well I think she'll do. When she talks about being multi-faceted, I believe her. She's so self-assured and confident that I have full confidence in her too. I talk a lot about vibes, but she just gives off that vibe of someone who's here for the long-haul. 

My Prediction: Going Deep

Symone

Personal fave ranking: #7/13

Although I have her at 7th on my personal faves, my "favorites" of the cast encompass literally 7/13 of the queens, so yes, Symone is one of my faves! Every time she speaks, she reminds me of the late, great ChiChi, both thanks to the accent and just how warm and endearing she is. But like... ChiChi once she got that coin, because Symone's looks... WOW. THE HAIR in the interview is fantastic. RHAP had her as their #1 pick, and while I'm sold on her, I don't think I'm quite as sold as them. We see the fashion, we see the personality, but I didn't get a great sense of how she's going to do at performing. She could be amazing, but I simply don't know based on the interview. 

My Prediction: Late Middle of the Pack 

Tamisha Iman

Personal fave ranking: #8/13

Once again, this is a queen that I have varied opinions on. On a personal level, although I liked her, nothing about her particularly stood out to me. This type of old school pageant queen is rarely one I gravitate toward. As I mentioned with Kahmora, we tend to get 2 types of seasoned queens, and I think Tamisha will be the opposite of Kahmora-- a queen whose vast skillset takes her far. She talks about designing and making all of her outfits, and she seems really polished and confident. However, there are little hints in there that give me pause and make me think she could be the other type of seasoned queen and a potential early boot. It probably doesn't help that the first RPDR queen she reminds me of is Jasmine Masters. However, I'm mostly sticking with my gut here. I was going to say she was going deep, but I'm realizing that there are many queens whose abilities I trust more than Tamisha's, so although I can envision her at the end, I've ended up hedging my bets just a bit.

My Prediction: Late Middle of the Pack

Tina Burner

Personal fave ranking: #9/13

I wanted to like Tina so much more than I did. When I first saw her, my immediate RPDR queen connection was Nina West, who remains one of my absolute favorites. But for me, as I continued watching her video, I felt like she was more of the watered-down version of Nina West and other campy queens we've seen, and a bit ho-hum in comparison to the rest of the cast. She's campy and funny, but not as much as some past campy queens. And Ru already doesn't tend to favor campy queens, especially their fashion. She seems to have a fun personality, but not as fun as some others on the cast. Usually, this type of queen is one I'd easily pencil in for the end game, but in Tina Burner's case, everything about her just screams average and middle of the pack, so that's where I'm placing her.

My Prediction: Middle of the Pack

Utica Queen

Personal fave ranking: #4/13

While watching Utica's interview, my opinion fluctuated wildly. At times, I found her endearingly quirky. At others, kinda annoying. Her quirkiness definitely felt very put on at first, and I think the more I felt she was genuinely an oddball, the more I warmed to her. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I always love the weird queens. I'm like a moth to light-- I just can't stay away. Add to that the fact that I looooved this look from Utica, and I'm sold on her. She talked about performing very briefly, and about how bizarre her performances are, so that gives me hope that she's not going to be a look queen who flounders in performances. Weird queens have a huge variety in placement, but often either win/go deep or are eliminated somewhere around the middle because they're simply too weird for the judges' taste. I hope Utica will be the former, and from what I've seen so far, I think she will be.

My Prediction: Going Deep

So, those are my thoughts on the Season 13 cast! Usually, at this point, I'd make my winner pick and my pick for who I personally want to win, but I think I made it pretty clear that Rosé is both lol. 

Looking at my predictions, I think this is the first time I hope I'm wrong, because my predicted "Going Deep" queens are looking rather milquetoast in comparison to the really fantastic queens of color that I'd prefer to watch all season. So, fingers crossed, I'm horribly incorrect!

A Way-Too-Early Big Brother 22 Boot Order Prediction!

Big Brother 22's premiere date is FINALLY upon us, so I thought it would be fun to create a way-too-early prediction for the boot order. And as I started doing that, I realized that in order to predict the boot order, I needed to first get some idea of how I think the alliances will shake out, at least in the early season. So that turned into this big, weird, conspiracy theory of a post that you're about to see here.

Obviously, we don't have the actual full cast list at this point. However, based on the current rumor mill on Twitter, I think the cast pictured below is our real cast, and my predictions will therefore be based on it. If even one person is different, that can shake up the dynamic, so hopefully this is accurate.

I went through the cast, tried to make connections based on previous relationships, and have used that to create the predictions below. Pretty much all of my predictions on placement/ alliances are based on that prediction, so if I'm woefully wrong on that, I'm probably going to totally bomb on everything! But that'll make this post even more fun to look back on at the end of the season.

General Alliance/House Structure Predictions

Every year, we see a big majority alliance form in the first week of the competition, run things for a few weeks, and eventually break up. While trying to make connections between players, I ended up compiling just that-- an 8 person alliance built on what I believe to be some of the strongest pre-game friendships that will be highly combustible. Here's how I see it shaking out.

I think that Dani, Janelle, and Nicole F. are the most well-connected people in the house, and they're also connected to each other. I could see Keesha joining up with them and the 4 of them pulling in Kaysar, Cody, Da'vonne, and Memphis. And here we see our immediate problem. Da'vonne & Nicole already played together, aligned with each other, and the alliance blew up. I think if they were proposed an alliance like this, they'd have trouble turning it down, but wouldn't trust each other and that would eventually be the end of the alliance. I'm not sure how the ensuing chaos would play out, but I'd love to see it happen. 

I say all this, but also based on his previous game, I know that Tyler tends to work with athletic players-- look at Level 6. They were the pretty people/ the popular kids/ the athletes. Which is essentially what my big majority alliance looks like-- the popular athletes and their previous allies. Tyler, and possibly Christmas & Bayleigh could definitely be somewhere in the mix with that group, and if the alliances shake out differently, they could be in there instead of people like Keesha and Memphis.

I could also see an early all guys alliance forming between Cody, Memphis, Tyler, and Enzo. It'd probably be spearheaded by Enzo, who would likely be both the most expendable & the only one 100% committed to it, since everyone else has a pre-established friendship in the game.

Another potential alliance I see are the moms/parents: Dani, Janelle, D'avonne, Christmas, maybe Enzo? I think this just further solidifies my thoughts on that majority alliance, tbh.

And then there are the misfits: Kevin, Nicole A, Ian, and David. They were misfits on their original seasons & seem to be the same on this one as well. We always get some misfits going deep in the game and others getting cut because someone wants to not get blood on their hands, and I think this cast is no different. Full disclosure: I have not seen Kevin's season. I'm basing my opinion on him on what I know/have heard about him from BB discourse! There are very few seasons I haven't watched, and 11 is one of them. (Full list: 5, 7 (bc I haven't finished 5), 9, 11)

So, those are my broad alliance predictions, now on to my actual prediction for the boot order! 

Note: they're divided into categories-- pre-jury, early jury, late jury, F2. The categorization is more important than where I've specifically placed them on the list, but I have tried to roughly order them too.

Boot Order Predictions

Pre-Jury

Ian

I really hate that I've had to put Ian in this spot, but it just makes the most sense. I think he's a really easy first boot. And if not him, then the person I have directly below him on here. First, he's one of the least well-connected members of the cast. He played with Janelle, but they weren't close, and I think she's actually more likely to target him than to work with him. He's also kinda been out of the BB community for a little while. And on top of that, he's a winner. And on top of that, he was nearly the first boot on his original season because of how awkward he was. Unfortunately, he's just not in a great spot going into this game.

Potential upside to get him further: I think if he manages to survive the first few evictions (potentially by forming an underdogs alliance?), lock him in for the late game. Especially since there are a lot of strong underdog/misfit players-- they just have to be able to come together and form something quickly. 

David

Unfortunately, David also isn't in a great position going into this game either. Sure, he's got Nicole A from his season as a potential ally, but she's also a bit of a misfit in this cast. He also was already the first boot last season, which I think makes him a really easy target if one of the first HOHs doesn't want to make a big move and get blood on their hands. That said, we've barely seen him play, and I do think he has the potential to be a capable player-- I just don't have any proof for that.

Potential upside to get him further: If he can quickly get himself in a better spot than last time. He's really likable, personable, and perceptive. I think if he can bond with people quickly before someone tries to go for an easy first boot, he has the potential to go much further.

Enzo

As much as I think Enzo had a really great social game in BB12, I'm not sure where he finds his footing in this cast (he's one of the least connected) and could easily see him going out early. I see him as someone whose best-case scenario is getting into an all-guys alliance like the Brigade & I'm not sure how strong of a game he can play outside of that. And pretty much ALL of the other guys (especially the ones he'd try to work with) have a pre-established stronger female ally. So any loyalty to a potential all guys alliance would be weak. I could see him trying to form something with Tyler, Cody, and Memphis, but I think Enzo would be the clear odd man out of that alliance & therefore the easiest to cut. 

Potential upside to get him further: If he could get in good with the old-school/parent players, I think he could find a decent footing. It just depends on if he can work with them.

Kaysar

I mean... he's never made it to jury, so why predict anything different? I'm mostly kidding, but in all seriousness, he's one of the people I'm most excited to see back. TBH, I think his biggest strength and biggest weakness are both Janelle. Janelle is really well connected in this cast, which I think will help him to a good position early on. However, she's also one of the 3 biggest targets in this cast, and I think anyone not aligned with her will be gunning for her and her allies immediately. Kaysar could easily get caught in the crosshairs, especially if Janelle saves herself by winning a comp-- which is more likely than not.

Potential upside to get him further: If Janelle makes it a few weeks and then gets cut pre-jury. That gives him enough time to get integrated into whatever alliance she brings him into, but also removes the player putting the biggest target on his back. Once she's gone, he could be seen as alone and weak, and his likability could bring him far. 

Janelle

I find it hard to see Janelle making jury in this season, even though I think she's one of the most well-connected players in the cast. I see her, Daniele, and Tyler as the most obvious threats on the board. I think she has a lot of potential allies, and could be the one to create the initial majority alliance, but that just makes her target bigger to the misfits. And a misfit always wins HOH early in the season. The way I see the house aligning in the pre-jury phase, Tyler is probably floating between the misfits and the majority alliance, so a misfit would be unlikely to target him, which makes Janelle #1 on the board. Regardless of if my majority alliance vs misfits thing happens, Janelle is going to be a huge target for anyone not aligned with her. Of the 3 biggest targets, I think she's the least strategically sound, and although she's a comp beast, if they block her from playing in the veto by backdooring her, she could easily be out pre-jury.

Potential upside to get her further: If her allies are really loyal and she wins a bunch of comps. I'm not sure I see another way for her to get much further than this. 

Early Jury

Daniele

Like Janelle, I see Daniele as one of the biggest targets and threats on this cast list. She's an iconic early-season player and she's known as a comp beast. Everyone loves Dani. Personally, I find her a bit overrated, because I don't think her strategic game is that great, and I place much more importance on that than on comp wins. Season 13, she abandoned her returnees alliance in favor of the much weaker newbies because she liked them more. She can definitely be too emotional of a player. Regardless, I think that Janelle will be a bigger threat than her, and I think they'll end up aligned or at least on the same side of the house, so I think Janelle will be out before her. And compare her to Tyler, the other big threat, I think he's a more capable, maneuverable player while also being good at comps. So I think he outlasts her.

Potential upside to get her further: Ditto Janelle. If her allies are really loyal and she wins a bunch of comps. I'm not sure I see another way for her to get much further than this. 

Memphis

For the early jury phase, I've chosen people I think will be seen as threats within their alliances, or the strongest of a pair, etc. Memphis and Keesha will be seen as a duo, and if one's going to get targeted first... it's gonna be Memphis. That said, I see Memphis as someone with a wide range of placements. He could be out early because he's a physical threat and not well connected, he could float through jury and make it almost to the end, or he could make it to the finale again. Memphis is a really hard one to peg down. But given the position I think he'll be in, I think this is a decent prediction.

Potential variances: honestly, literally anything could happen to shift his placement in a different direction. You could visit me from the future and tell me literally any placement claiming it's the one he got on BB22, and I'd be like "yeah, that checks out."

Bayleigh

Bayleigh is like Memphis for me in the fact that I could see her placing absolutely anywhere on this list depending on how well she does in comps and how the alliances shake out. I think she showed a decent ability for the game in BB20 despite aligning with the weakest players in the house and making a few fatal blunders along the way. I think if she can position herself well and be non-threatening on the comps, she can make a pretty decent run.  Otherwise, she might get cut in the first half of the season, whether due to not forming a strong enough alliance, playing too hard, or telling the opposing alliance about the secret power that she has. 

Potential variances: again, ditto memphis. I kinda already laid this out in the previous paragraph.

Christmas

Christmas. Why? I was a bit confused when I saw Amber was in the mix, but... CHRISTMAS? TBH, if Amber is in instead of Christmas, I think she's 100% in that majority group with Cody/Nicole, and that might change the structure of the group. But Christmas is the one who's more heavily rumored, so she's the one I'm talking about. I think she'll be just physically threatening enough and just on the outs enough that she'll make it to somewhere around mid-jury before getting cut because of her competition abilities. Then again, we haven't really ever actually seen her competition abilities, so... who knows. Maybe she's actually awful at them. Probably not, but it's possible.

Potential variances: If she comes out of the gate swinging immediately and can't find strong allies, she might get picked off by the majority alliance pre-jury. On the flip side, if she's as much of a dud as she was on 19, she could end up making it all the way to the end as a goat. 

Mid to Late Jury

Kevin

As I mentioned, I've never seen Kevin's season, so my opinions on him are based on BB discourse. I think that if/when my hypothetical majority alliance combusts, Kevin is someone Da'vonne might try to pick up. TBH, she might just do that regardless week 1. Despite that, though, I think he's someone who's already a bit of a misfit on top of the fact that he's not well connected to this cast. However, it's my understanding that that's also the position he was in for a good chunk of his own season, and he managed to survive all the way until final 3. And possibly would have been the winner had he made it to final 2. So he's used to being an underdog and being able to survive through the game as an underdog. Additionally, because of his underdog status, not many people remember him at all, let alone remember him for being a particularly strong player. So he's one of the players coming in with the absolute smallest target on his back, despite proving to be (according to podcasters whose opinions I trust) the best player on his season. It seems to me like he got a centimeter in season 11. If you give him an inch, he might be able to take the whole mile.

Potential variances: He could end up in the Ian/David spot if he gets unlucky. I think a lot of his danger will be early on when he's likely struggling to make allies and seen as an easy person to evict. However, I think a lot of the misfits on this cast are strong strategic players, so if they can form something early... that would be really great to watch.

Tyler

As a self-proclaimed Tyler stan, it hurts a bit to be putting him anywhere except the finale. And if I'm honest with myself, my gut still says he could make a fantastic run at it and end up winning, because I have that much faith in his ability to play this game. But the biggest downside to his game is the same one I see, and the players will see. He's a huge threat. He's far and away the best player on this cast. Period. He ran circles around his BB20 houseguests, and although he bungled the ending a bit, he still played a great game. But everyone knows that now. Including the houseguests. People will be gunning to get him out, and he doesn't come in with many pre-established allies. TBH, I probably should be putting him in early jury, or even pre-jury. But my gut and my opinion on his BB20 game tell me that he has the chops to survive the target on his back. I think he's got a good enough social game that he will be able to maneuver between what I believe the alliances will be. It's the game he played last time, but if you've got someone who's seemingly on your side, you're probably going to think twice about trying to cut him. And that's why his game works so well. Will he be able to last this far? I think so, but I could be wrong.

Potential variances: Another high-variance player. He could be out early due to his threat level, or he could be a strong enough player to make it all the way to the end. I'm betting more on the latter, but I wouldn't be shocked at the former either.

Nicole A

Although she's positioned to potentially be a misfit on this cast again, we've already seen that she's able to maneuver her way to the end in a position like that. She also has stronger potential allies this time around. And she's not coming in with a huge strategic target on her back. She wasn't seen as a mastermind, she wasn't seen as a comp threat-- she's known for winning America's Favorite Houseguest because she was the bright spot in an otherwise problematic season. So sure, maybe that might make her a social threat to some people, but she also didn't have a ton of long-lasting allies in the game last time either, so people probably won't consider her a social threat either. All that said, however, she did definitely have a very sneaky game in BB21 before her spot was blown up. She's proven that she does have some decent strategic chops, and if they underestimate her, she could make it all the way to the end again.

Potential variances: She could be out early because she's a misfit who's seen as too likable. On the flipside, though, she could play a really lowkey game and make it all the way to the end. I think she's personable and likable enough to get in good with people and get far. 

Keesha

Keesha's kinda got the whole package here. As a more old-school player, she's been a part of the community a long time and therefore is pretty well-connected. She and Da'vonne especially seemed to get along well in the interactions they've had, which is a major reason I've mentioned them as likely being aligned this season. Furthermore, she comes in without a reputation for being a gamer. If anything, people remember Keesha's birthday more than they remember any of her actual gameplay. She's also there with Memphis, who she worked with in her own season. She's likable, so she'll probably be able to bond with the players she doesn't know. And she's also a capable player who made it near the end on her first season. And I think she'll be able to do that again. She also befriended some of the misfit players in her original season, so if she could do that again while still being well-connected? That might be a deadly combination!

Potential variances: She got in some infamous fights in BB10, and although she aligned with women early on in the season, that alliance blew up, with tons of fights in the process. If she aligns with women again this season, like I think she's positioned to, history might repeat itself, and this time she could be on the opposing end of it. 

Da'vonne

I'm really surprising myself with how high I'm predicting Da'vonne will get. I'm not necessarily putting the jury members in order, but I do think she has the potential to go a lot further than she has before, which is why I've put her in this section of the list. I think that she's one of the most well-connected players in the game. She's positioned to be able to have allies immediately and form a majority. And she's a gamer. She's there to play, and she wants to win. And apparently, she's gotten really physically fit for The Challenge, which will be really helpful due to how physical recent competitions have become. The only problem is... Da'vonne. Both of her previous seasons, her mouth got her in trouble. And the highest she's gotten is the first jury member. But if there's a season where I think she's positioned to do better, I think it's this one. I think she comes in with more of a reputation as a character than as a good strategist, and I think that will be a benefit to her. Furthermore, I think the people she's going to align with early on will be much bigger targets than her, so once some of them are gone and her alliance falls apart again, if she's still there, she might be able to pick up some misfits or rally together any alliance members she still has.

Potential variances: She's in a good position within this cast, but that all depends on her ability to remain calm & level-headed and not get herself into hot water. If she can do that, she can go far.

Finale Night-- F2

Nicole F

All pre-season jokes aside, I think Nicole Franzel is in a really good spot going into this season. She's got a lot of friends on this cast, and they're from a variety of eras of the show. I mean, the two I see her most strongly aligned with are probably Dani and Cody, who on their own probably wouldn't end up working together. Despite being a winner, Nicole probably won't be seen as a threat. Sure, she won, but her game's not super respected by the community. She's that player who's better than you think she is, and will likely be underrated both by the fans and by her fellow houseguests. She's also really likable, at least to her fellow houseguests. So I see her as someone coming in with a really good chance at doing really well again.

Potential variances: She's a winner. If people in the house actually respect her game, she could definitely be targeted, and then it would come down to how well connected she truly is to the people around her. 

Cody

(my winner pick!)

Before taking a good long look at this cast, I honestly kept forgetting Cody was on it. But as I compared them all to each other, he started really standing out. He's going to do well at competitions, he's got a great social game, and he's a solid strategist. He's basically the total package. And he has all of that wrapped in the nice bow of "the guy who made the worst move in Big Brother history." I think Cody's going to be massively underrated by the other houseguests. Because he's known for that one move, that massive blunder that cost him the game. But otherwise, he was actually a really solid, well-rounded BB player. If he took Victoria, he won 500K and today he'd be seen as a mid-tier winner. Period. I think the houseguests won't remember how strong of a game he played until that point, and therefore he'll be able to fly under the radar. Add to that his connection to Nicole F, who's connected to a huge portion of the cast? I think he's sitting pretty in this cast. 

Potential variances: At some point, he'll probably be seen as a physical threat, which could get him into hot water. It also depends on how the alliances eventually shake out. I think women are going to be power players this season, and if he ends up on the wrong side of an all girls power alliance? Watch out, dude.

So, with a few hours left to go before Big Brother 22: All Stars 2 premieres, this is my official prediction, and I'm locking in my winner pick as Cody Calafiore. My heart is not with Cody-- if I'm honest, my heart is right where it's always been alongside our superfans Tyler, Nicole A & Ian. But based on how I see the season playing out in my weird conspiracy theory, Cody's my pick. 

Thanks for reading! Let me know your own winner picks & predictions down in the comments!

Ranking all of Danganronpa V3's Cases/Trials

Hey everyone, it's time for another Danganronpa ranking!

In my last 2 Danganronpa posts, I ranked the cases in Trigger Happy Havoc and SDR2, so now it's time to rank the cases in Danganronpa V3! Although the ranking for this one wasn't quite as competitive as the ranking for SDR2, it was still pretty competitive and there were definitely a few placements I was tempted to change. V3 has some really unique and twisty trials.

If you have no idea what Danganronpa is, don't go any further, because this post will contain spoilers for the entire trilogy!

I mentioned this in the last posts, but I'll repeat it before jumping into the ranking:
I mostly see people talk about ranking the trials, which are definitely part of this, but in this ranking, I'm ranking the cases as a whole. So basically I'm focusing more on the mystery, how interesting it was to investigate and solve, how complicated it was, etc. Things like the trial being long/dragged out and the mechanics of the trial aren't things I have too much interest in discussing, so they're not things that will really come into play on this ranking.

Without further ado, let's jump into the list!

6- Case #2- Ryoma's Murder

Honestly, when compared to the other two games, it was much easier to choose my least favorite trial for V3. Not because this case is that bad, but rather because all of the other cases of the game are just leaps and bounds better than this one, so it gets easily & very obviously left in the dust. Yes, even by case 3. I said what I said. 

Ryoma's murder is just really forgettable within the grand scheme of V3 for me. It gets lost in the shuffle among all of the other huge cases throughout the game. Kirumi is one of the least notable killers and has one of the most random-seeming motives, and while Ryoma has inspired tons of memes post-game, he's also not one of the most memorable characters within the game either. Furthermore, although the piranhas and the magic show are an interesting element for the case, the case is honestly pretty straightforward in comparison to the other cases in V3. If it were in... Trigger Happy Havoc, for example, it might have been ranked a lot higher, but the V3 list is really competitive, so it's at the very bottom. 

5- Case #3- Angie & Tenko's Murders

Although it's in 5th place, I'm very firmly a V3 case 3 defender and wanted so badly to put this higher on the list. Because the investigation of case 3 is possibly my favorite part of V3 overall. The seance sequence, followed by Tenko's murder and Kokichi subsequently pretending to be dead is one of the most compelling sequences of events in the entire series for me. However, there's the obvious downside of the fact that this is also one of the most stupid cases, motives, and killing methods in the entire series. So that tips it in the other direction... much like a SeEsAW.

Ugh, the seesaw. And the fact that Tenko was murdered in general. It's all just so... dumb. Look, I get why Kiyo felt the need to kill as many people as possible for Sister, but that doesn't stop me from thinking it's a really stupid motive for the writers to create for his character. And on top of that, Kiyo is so obviously the killer, to the point that you almost want to write him off because he's so obvious. And on top of all of that, we also miss out on what could've been a really cool opportunity. The game presents us with the option of there being two killers... just for there to only be 1 killer. That's such a flagrant violation of the concept of Chekov's Gun. Don't dangle the idea of multiple killers right in front of us if you don't intend to actually give it to us!

The final piece of this case, and the final thing that makes me want to move this up the list... the development it gives to Himiko. One of the reasons I love case 2-2 is because it gives my favorite character, Fuyuhiko, the start to his redemption/growth arc. Similarly, 3-3 gives Himiko her own growth arc. She finally begins to pull herself out of inaction and is inspired by Tenko's last words to her to show her emotions and express how she feels. The more times I experience this case, the more I grow to love Himiko, for this exact reason. 

4- Case #6- Rantaro's Murder pt. 2

Of the 3 final cases, this is the one I have the most mixed opinions on. Firstly, to get my interpretation of it out of the way, I firmly believe that Tsumugi was lying about several of the aspects of the trial. I don't believe that they were really these soulless, messed up potential killers before being given their in-game personalities. I think the prologue pretty handily proves that on its own. Past that, however, I think her lies are a bit harder to parse through. I view Trigger Happy Havoc & SDR2 as real things that happened to real people, but I'm not sure whether I view it in the lens of V3 being an alternate universe version of the Danganronpa world or if V3 is significantly in the future and inspired by the original real killing games. IDK. But that's generally my personal opinion on the matter.

Anyway, the ending of V3 really reminds me of The Truman Show, which I think is why I was pretty quick to accept how meta it was. I'm not sure I personally totally love it, but I also didn't find it as controversial as the fandom at large seemed to find it. I liked the way the trial at first seemed to be returning to the original concept of hope vs. despair before finally returning to the game's true concept of truth vs lies. I thought it was a really clever way of wrapping up the themes of the game and emphasizing the idea that truth and lies aren't black and white morally, and lies can have positive impacts on people as well. 

Personally, my favorite aspect of the case was the actual retrial of the first case. The idea of Monokuma purposely manipulating trial outcomes certainly wasn't a new concept for this game (see: Trial 1-5), but it was a concept I thought was cool the first time around & thought was handled significantly better this time around. Going back over the case with new evidence was a really awesome idea, and seeing it all culminate in the mastermind being revealed was just the cherry on top. 

3- Case #5- ???????'s Murder

Honestly, although I like this trial, I think I would have much more positive opinions about it if not for the people involved in it. This is the only case in the entire series where one of my favorite characters is both the victim and the culprit. Apart from Case 1-4, but including that feels like a cop-out. So this case really broke me in a way none other had done before. Because no matter what, I knew I was coming out of this trial losing both Kaito and Kokichi, aka half of my favorite characters. That hurt.

That said, though, the obvious most interesting aspect of this case is the fact that we don't know who the victim is, so we're forced to figure out not only the culprit, but the victim too. All while one of them is inside an exisal, changing personalities at the drop of a hat. And even more mind-bendingly, Monokuma also doesn't know who the killer is. The 5th cases in Danganronpa games tend to be the most mind-bending cases-- 1-5, a body inexplicably appears despite all the students being accounted for, 2-5, Nagito fake-suicides and uses his luck to get another student to accidentally kill him, and then this one. 

Overall, I think 2-5 is the most mind-bending of all of them, but the thing that makes me really appreciate 3-5 is, of course... Kokichi. He creates this entire plan to make a murder Monokuma can't solve and effectively ruin the killing game. In my opinion, this is when we finally see the closest thing to the real Kokichi we will ever see, and to me it speaks volumes about his intentions both in this trial and throughout the entire game. This case was the key piece to put Kokichi into perspective to me, and I think that's what I like most about the case, even if we had to lose him in the process. 

2- Case #1- Rantaro's Murder

The previous two first cases haven't ranked very highly on my lists. 1-1 was my least favorite case from THH, and 2-1 got 2nd to last solely by the grace of me disliking 2-3 that much. But 3-1 changes everything for me. This case is not only one of my favorites in V3, but also across the entire series as a whole. The plot twist of "the protagonist is actually the villain" can still be done well, but is a bit overdone at this point. But the "protagonist isn't really the protagonist and dies in the first chapter" twist? Now that's interesting. 

Unfortunately, I mildly spoiled this for myself-- I liked to look up which gifts I should give characters and in doing so, saw something that alluded to Shuichi being the one giving the gift rather than Kaede. Probably because I was trying to do my free time with Shuichi lol. Which is another key point-- as much as I was excited to have a main-game female protagonist... I didn't really like Kaede very much. And I still don't. So switching to playing as Shuichi, who was immediately my favorite character? I was a fan.

The build-up to the murder (especially all the hints to what she was doing) and the subsequent realization in the 6th trial that Kaede actually didn't end up killing Rantaro both add really interesting layers on top of what is already a really unique, interesting case within the series. This is truly the case that just keeps on giving, and subverting all of your expectations every single step of the way.

1- Case #4- Miu's Murder

As I mentioned in my rankings for SDR2, I love when the characters are forced into a different environment and the way that the resulting case hinges around understanding the secret to that new environment. And although I think it was still done best in case 2-4, this is a really great spin on it. And that's even before we get to the fact that the culprit is someone that you'd never think would be a culprit, and that fact once again hinges on understanding the new world that they were forced into. 

Although I don't find the virtual world quite as compelling as the funhouse, I do really still enjoy the process of trying to understand the world, not only on its own but also as it relates to the case, to the real world, and to Miu's own murder plot, which is an extra twist that I found really compelling.

The obvious downside for me of this case is, of course, Kokichi's involvement in it and the way that he manipulated Gonta into essentially doing his dirty work for him. It's Kokichi's lowest point morally in the game and the biggest thing that Kokichi detractors can point to when they want to say how evil he is. And I get it, it's definitely a side of him that I really didn't enjoy seeing. It shows the extent to which he is truly self-interested, even above his desire to end the killing game. That said, I do also believe that his tears for Gonta were real. Maybe I'm being naive or seeing him through rose-colored glasses because he's my favorite character in the game, but that's how I interpret that moment. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. 



That's all for this post! I still haven't decided if I'm going to rank all of the cases together, or if I'm going to do a 5 favorite/least favorite, but that should be my last Danganronpa case/trial post. That might also be my last Danganronpa post for a while, because I've gotten to the point where I've done the posts/rankings that I most wanted to do. But if I have more that I want to do in the future, you'll definitely see more, because I love talking about Danganronpa any chance I get!

Let me know which Danganronpa V3 case is your favorite down in the comments!
Thanks for reading!